Most financial experts are forecasting the Gold price to increase in 2013 for the 13th year in a row. However, some financial institutions are scaling back their initial Gold forecast. “The Gold market tends to look beyond headline inflation, to what the reaction of the central banks is going to be. Even though inflation has been rather low for the past couple of years, the Gold market went very strong, because it correctly identified that the central banks around the world are going to keep the spigot on. Even when inflation does begin to rise, if investors sensed there were going to be a steep ratcheting up in the interest rate, that would be the end of the bull market,” James Steel, chief Precious Metal analyst at HSBC, said.
The United States debt ceiling is dominating the financial news as of late, and for good reason. If the government does not find a way to avoid hitting the debt ceiling, the result could be disastrous. There are some financial experts who believe it could trigger a new recession in the country. Tim Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity, says the focus should not be solely on the debt ceiling, but the amount of government spending. “We’re saying calibrate your message. Focus on overspending instead of long-term debt. Focusing on [the debt ceiling] makes the messaging more difficult.”
At 1 p.m. (EST), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1682.00, Down $4.00.
- Silver, $31.52, Down $0.05.
- Platinum, $1691.80, Up $1.90.
- Palladium, $726.30, Up $11.90.
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The morning news is optimistic for the economy based on renewed growth figures from Europe. The see-saw effect of Europe’s ups and downs are reversing yesterdays drop and once again going up. Tuesday data is showing gross domestic product output for the region in line with expectations; Germany had modest growth while France had a flat performance.
Closer to home news is also positive as a report is out today showing that retail sales rose 0.8 percent last month. Economists had only expected a 0.3 percent rise. The report also tells us that the seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index is up 0.3 percent last month, higher by 0.1 percent than expected. Despite the higher prices, there was an increase in consumer spending during July. The core measure of retail sales which excludes autos, gasoline, and building materials rose a solid 0.9 percent.
One of the top consumers of gold in the world, India, is showing weak demand for the precious metal as prices for gold remain strong against their currency, the rupee. India’s festival season has begun and will peak in November. This is a time for weddings and giving gold as a gift.
At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals prices were:
- Gold, $1,597.70, Down $13.50.
- Silver, $27.75, Down $0.13.
- Platinum, $1,402.00, Up $8.20.
- Palladium, $576.70, Down $0.50.
CENTRAL BANK REACTIONS KEY TO SURVIVING
The euro rebounded in afternoon trading today, which helped Gold, Silver, and many stocks to rebound from early losses, as well. China is now firmly in the mix as one of the global problems, said Sandy Lincoln of BMO Asset Management U.S. “It’s Europe, China, and the U.S. as the three big worries,” Lincoln said. How central banks react in this trying time is key to whether the global economy essentially makes it through to the other side. Miller Tabak’s Peter Boockvar said, “We’ve been talking about the tug of war for a while of the slowing global economy on the one hand, and central bankers trying to fight it tooth and nail on the other hand.”
Recent data from China, as mentioned previously, may be the jolt that central banks needed to spur them into more action for the economy. Jeffrey Sica of SICA Wealth Management said, “Gold is up mainly because of the weak manufacturing numbers in China, suggesting that there is a pretty strong indication we are going to see more quantitative easing there.” One potential setback to more easing is rising food prices, however. Sica believes that the Federal Reserve will be more concerned with keeping inflation in tow due to these rising prices.
At 5 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,621.00, Up $2.30.
- Silver, $28.19, Down $0.02.
- Platinum, $1,402.70, Down $11.10.
- Palladium, $584.30, Down $4.00.
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