Weekly Gold & Silver Market Recap – 5/24/2013

GOLD BREAKS LOSING STREAK

This week brought an upward change the Gold price hasn’t seen in weeks. Gold & Silver experienced a dip Monday morning, but quickly recovered as technical trading gained positive momentum. “As the market started to come up, it was hitting [short-seller] stops and then that old huge level of support [for Silver], that low [traders] would put all their buy stops there. Once [prices] hit that, that’s when it did that parabolic move up,” RJO Futures senior commodities broker Phil Streible said. “All those shorts that got in this morning, they’re all covering, and all the longs that got blown out get back in on the long side.” Gold is also regaining confidence as there have been considerable selloffs in both Japanese stocks and the global equity markets. Investor sentiment quickly shifted toward the safe haven asset once economic concerns began to brew in Europe and Japan. “I think the feeling on the market is at the moment — considering how there’s been almost like a one-way street for equities over the last few months — will this just be a couple of days blip and then the buyers will return?” Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a phone interview from Copenhagen. Gold’s negative correlation to the stock market was on display this week, as the yellow metal is heading for its best week in the past month. Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said, “The conditions are favourable for a continued role for Gold. Those loose economic policies aren’t coming to an end just yet, though there are some voices in favour of a more hawkish stance in the United States.”

ALL EYES ON THE FED

This week loomed very large in the United States, as Chicago’s Federal Reserve President Charles Evans spoke Monday in front of Congress on the outlook of the economy. “This series of events certainly has the potential to overshadow what is likely to be a relatively quiet start to the week for fundamental macroeconomic indicators out of the US, but the big question is precisely when we’ll see the market react to the imminent tighter monetary conditions,” GFT Markets market strategist Fawad Razaqzada said. Many believed the Fed would announce the slowdown of their easing program which could drastically change the global economic landscape. However, after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke on Wednesday it was clear that the easing will continue for now. When Bernanke speaks, the Gold market listens. Wednesday was no different when he said it was too early to slow down the central bank’s easing program based on current economic conditions. “The correlation of the dollar with Gold has been quite strong lately, and today’s weakness in the U.S. currency after Fed officials said it may be too early to be pulling back of QE (quantitative easing) certainly helps the metal,” Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said. While Gold enjoyed a positive week, not all financial markets can say the same. Ongoing concern surrounding the future of quantitative easing (QE) and weakness in Asian markets weigh on equities markets as stocks continue to trade down heading into the weekend. “Positive durable goods sales were unable to bring in any lasting support and instead may be having the opposite effect, providing more evidence for the Fed to begin tapering QE,” CMC Markets’ senior market analyst Colin Cieszynski said. This week’s markets slump could disrupt a four week winning streak for both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.

At 4:45 pm (EDT), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:

  • Gold, $1387.00, Down $7.80.
  • Silver, $22.45, Down $0.17.
  • Platinum, $1453.60, Down $5.10.
  • Palladium, $730.30, Down $10.40.

For more APMEX reviews of daily and weekly Precious Metals market activities, visit our News and Commentaries page.

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Physical Gold Demand Up 2013

Physical Gold Demand Up 2013
The global increase in demand for physical Gold began in the fourth quarter of 2012 and continued into the first quarter of 2013 as the aggregate metric tons of physical Gold taken by bar and coin buyers increased from approximately 336 tonnes to approximately 377 tonnes, an increase of over 12%. Physical Gold bar and coin demand in the United States grew from approximately 17 tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2012 to approximately 20 tonnes in the first quarter of 2013, an increase of approximately 22%.

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Weekly Gold & Silver Market Recap – 5/10/2013

GOLD ENDS WEEK LOWER
As the week comes to a close, Gold is sitting at a two and a half week low. On Tuesday, the first of numerous reports that affected the price of Gold came out of Europe regarding formation of a banking union. This has caused a belief that there will be less financial risk in the region, which has in turn caused a drop in safe haven assets such as Gold. “Any indication that Europe is working towards a resolution is bad for Gold,” Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Money is flowing into riskier assets like equities.” The next move in the Gold price came on Wednesday when the U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to a five year low. Improved labor conditions tend to put pressure on the yellow metal due to the Federal Reserve’s preservation of a low federal funds rate as compared to the unemployment rate. If the Fed raises interest rates, the market perceives that as a sign they may also cut back on current monetary policy, which makes Gold shine as a safe haven asset. “Jobless claims were better than expected, indicative of a recovering U.S. economy, and the dollar is a little bit stronger … In that kind of environment you would expect Gold to come under pressure,” Deutsche Bank analyst Daniel Brebner said. The Gold price declined as the U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen and investors focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech Friday morning. Expectations that Bernanke might reveal a plan to slow the Fed’s bond purchase program weighed on the metal as similar rumors have negatively impacted Gold in the past. Friday’s price dip drove Gold down 2.5 percent to its lowest level in two weeks.

GOLD STILL SHINES FOR MANY
Even in the face of lower Gold prices, many investors and market analysts believe the future for the yellow metal is strong. Investors have noticed the movement metals have experienced and continue to feel confident purchasing hard assets. New concerns come from the Federal Reserve’s proposal to modify quantitative easing (QE) based on recent positive economic data. “With the Fed’s recent commitment to stand ready to alter the pace of QE, based on employment and inflation expectations, bullion prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to changes in U.S. employment data,” HSBC said in a note. Andy Xie of MarketWatch believes that with growth stuck at about a two percent range and inflation seemingly rising in the future, the U.S. is in a period of stagflation. Xie wrote, “Despite its recent setback, Gold remains a big beneficiary of the current macro environment. It could make a new high in the current year and rise much higher in 2014. The Gold bull market will end when an inflation crisis pushes central bankers around the world to tighten aggressively… For the masses, Gold is the best inflation hedge.” Last month, Gold imports into China more than doubled, setting an all-time high. One of the most impressive things to note is that all of this happened before Gold’s price dropped in April. “This is quite out of expectation as all these imports were done before the market slump in April. Judging from the explosive growth of trading volume on the Shanghai Gold Exchange in the second half of April, and anecdotes that many jewelry shops are sold out throughout the country, imports might be even more substantial in April,” said Qu Mingyu, a trader at Bank of China, one of the country’s three largest bullion banks.

At 4:00 pm (EDT), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:

Gold, $1445.30, Down $25.60.
Silver, $23.85, Down $0.15.
Platinum, $1491.80, Down $26.20.
Palladium, $709.00, Down $7.80.

For more APMEX reviews of daily and weekly Precious Metals market activities, visit our News and Commentaries page.