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Trepidation continues to weigh on investors as the U.S. stock market opened to early losses this morning. A meager outlook for global growth and reduced earnings are the catalysts for market dips in recent days. “We have had a number of large companies reporting poor visibilities and that is going to continue,” said Michael O’Sullivan, head of portfolio strategy at Credit Suisse Private Banking in London. “Revenue growth is simply weak because the U.S. economy has slowed, the Asian economy has slowed and Europe is in recession.”
Gold is down this morning as negative forecasts for global economic expansion weigh on Precious Metals markets as well. Though Gold has realized three straight sessions of losses, the metal rallied to 11 month highs in the third quarter peaking at $1,795 an ounce. Long term investors are still seeking the security presented by the yellow metal as uncertainty remains pervasive in equities markets. “The long-running rally is intact, however, and we expect that Gold prices will revive after a period of consolidation,” said analysts at HSBC bank.
At 9 am (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1760.00, Down $2.50.
- Silver, $33.92, Down $0.08.
- Platinum, $1670.40, Down $21.90.
- Palladium, $651.50, Up $7.70.
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American stock futures and Precious Metals rebounded this morning after two economic reports were released. The trade deficit narrowed to the smallest gap in nearly two years, and weekly jobless claims fell after economists expected an increase. The four week moving average of the jobless claims, however, increased slightly. Recently, good news for the American economy has worked the opposite way with Precious Metals, as good news makes the Federal Reserve less likely to institute another round of quantitative easing.
Economist David Rosenberg said the U.S. economy is not growing as quickly as it should. He said, “The overall story is that with the massive intervention by the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve, they did manage to terminate the Great Recession in the mid part of 2009, but the reality is that we never had much of a recovery, at least in the economy. And in terms of what we’re seeing going forward, I still think that there’s more downside risk than upside potential.”
The Gold price was steady this morning, though losses in the euro seemed to be trying to pull it down. Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said, “Gold seems to have gotten a foothold above the $1,600 level and seems to be relatively stable. It’s still showing this correlation to riskier assets. We’ve seen a bit of a rally in the oil market and equities, and Gold has kept a par with those moves.” Bhar said he believes more stimulus from federal governments is needed to spur the Gold price higher at this point.
At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,613.40, Down $0.60.
- Silver, $28.09, Down $0.10.
- Platinum, $1,411.70, Up $0.50.
- Palladium, $586.80, Down $1.20.
U.S. stock futures and Precious Metals are down slightly this morning, as investors are taking profits on the recent gains. News of a downgrade to the outlook for Greece’s sovereign debt rating also affected the markets, as the EU and International Monetary Fund seem less likely to provide more bailout funds to the troubled country. Also, the Bank of England paved the way for another round of quantitative easing for its country, cutting growth and inflation forecasts.
At least one analyst believes that the recent market rally is actually just setting up the stock market to fall. “I think we’re in choppy waters and that continues,” Charlie Morris of HSBC Global Asset Management said. “You need to trip the market to have a proper collapse. So you almost need to set it up with a rally, get everyone excited and then it can fall. If there are risks, the risks to a very negative market come after this rally fades.” In the long-term, traditionally, steep stock market losses are supportive of the Gold price.
The main topic supporting the price of Precious Metals right now is still the possibility of future monetary easing by the U.S. and the eurozone. Richcomm Global Services senior analyst Pradeep Unni said, “Gold seems to be supported by hopes that Europe and the United States would launch more stimulus measures to help shore up their faltering economies. Investors are betting that the festering debt crisis in the eurozone could push the ECB to launch a new round of bond-buying soon.”
At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,608.40, Down $2.40.
- Silver, $27.90, Down $0.30.
- Platinum, $1,403.70, Down $7.70.
- Palladium, $586.50, Down $3.20.